The estimation of multivariate GARCH models remains a challenging task, even in modern computer environments. This manuscript shows how Independent Component Analysiscan be used to estimate the Generalized Orthogonal GARCH model in a fraction of the time otherwise required. The proposed method...

We consider the modelling of rare events in financial time series,and introduce a marked point process model for the excesses of thetime series over a high threshold that combines a self-exciting processfor the exceedances with a mark (size) dependent process. This allowsrealistic models for...

In der Vergangenheit führte die Globalisierung und Öffnung der Finanzmärkte zu größerer Kapital- und Dienstleistungsfreiheit und zur De-Regulierung des Finanzsektors. In jüngster Zeit ist jedoch eine Trendumkehr von der De-Regulierung zur Re-Regulierung zu beobachten...

On financial markets many investment decisions are taken by groups and not by individuals. The evidence, however, whether groups better than individuals, is ambigous. We analyze the portfolios of groups and individuals in an asset allocation task on an experimental market. We find that groups on...

Our objective is to identify the trading strategy that would allow an investor to take advantage of “excessive” stock price volatility and “sentiment” fluctuations. We construct a general-equilibrium model of sentiment. In it, there are two classes of agents and stock prices are excessively...

This paper analyzes the effects that uncertainty about economic fundamentalshas on aggregate trading volume. First, the trading volume of an investor facinga standard consumption portfolio choice problem is derived. It is found that if theparameters describing the investment opportunity set...

In this paper we show that reputation formation in endogenously formed relationships is a decisive determinant for the existence and performance of credit markets. In theabsence of any third party enforcement of debt repayment the contracting parties succeed in establishing stable bilateral...

We examine how asymmetric information and competition in the credit market affect voluntary information sharing between lenders. We study an experimental credit market in which information sharing can help lenders to distinguish goodborrowers from bad ones, because borrowers may exogenously...

In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatilityof consumption) predict and are predicted by valuation ratios at long horizons. Furtherwe document that asset valuations drop as economic uncertainty rises — that is,financial markets dislike economic...