This paper presents a new method to detect informed trading activities in the options markets.An option trade is identified as informed when it is characterized by an unusual largeincrement in open interest and volume, induces large gains, and is not hedged in the stock market.For the period...

This paper analyzes the effects that uncertainty about economic fundamentalshas on aggregate trading volume. First, the trading volume of an investor facinga standard consumption portfolio choice problem is derived. It is found that if theparameters describing the investment opportunity set...

Theories of investment suggest that the option value of waiting to invest is significant in many branches of economics, where investment is irreversible. The existing literature has generally failed to account for the general equilibrium feedback effects of lumpy investments on optimal...

We analyse questions of arbitrage in financial markets in which asset prices change in time as stationary stochastic processes. The main focus of the paper is on a model where the price vectors are independent and identically distributed. In the framework of this model, we find conditions that...

We explore the pricing of variance risk by decomposing stocks' total variance into systematicand idiosyncratic return variances. While systematic variance risk exhibits a negative priceof risk, common shocks to the variances of idiosyncratic returns carry a large positive riskpremium. This...

This paper studies the term structure implications of a simple structural economy in which the representative agent displays ambiguity aversion, modeled by Multiple Priors Recursive Utility. Bond excess returns reflect a premium for ambiguity, which is observationally distinct from the risk...

This pap er intro duces a general framework for market mo dels, namedM arket M o del Approach, through the concept of admissible sets of for-ward swap rates spanning a given tenor structure. We relate this conceptto results in graph theory by showing that a set is admissible if and only ifthe...

The paper investigates how buyer-supplier firm-specific relationships affect security prices. Starting from the empirical inconsistencies associated with some standard structural models we propose a structural model of firm dependence in a vertically connected network of firms based on cash flow...

We show that a simple equilibrium model with uncertain growth is able to simultaneously generate patterns in implied volatility and risk aversion that are similar to the ones observed in the data. In addition, the model produces an implied pricing kernel that is increasing for particular levels...