In this paper we develop a structural equation model with latent variables in an ordinal setting which allows us to test broker-dealer predictive ability of financial market movements. We use a multivariate logit model in a latent factor framework, develop a tractable estimator based on a...

Several authors have shown that there exists a significant relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future changes in the rate of inflation. More recently, this relationship has been strengthened through the introduction of nonlinearities and regime shifts. This paper...

In this paper, we show that coherent upper and lower previsions as well as coherent risk measures are only meaningful under the assumption that one starts with initial wealth being constantly 0. This implies at least for coherent upper and lower previsions a correction of their interpretation,...

Interest rate derivatives are among the most actively traded financial instruments in the main currency areas. With values of positions reacting immediately to the underlying index of daily interbank rates, manipulation has become an increasing challenge for the operational implementation of...

With increasing appreciation of the fact that stock return variance is stochastic and variance risk is heavily priced, the industry has created a series of variance derivative products to span variance risk. The variance swap contract is the most actively traded of these products. It pays at...

The validation of probability calibration is an inherently difficult task. We develop a testing procedure for credit-scoring models. The models comprise two components to check whether the ex-ante probabilities support the ex-post frequencies. The first component tests the level of the...

This paper shows that in financial markets with endogenous asset supply and demand, both rational and noise traders do coexist in the long run. The finding implies that financial markets are neither informationally nor allocationally efficient. While rational traders have a consistently higher...

We propose an affine term structure model which accommodates non-linearities in the drift and volatility function of the short-term interest rate. Such non-linearities are a consequence of discrete beta-distributed regime shifts constructed on multiple thresholds. We derive iterative closed form...

We propose a new multivariate GARCH model with Dynamic Conditional Correlations that extends previous models by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilitiesand correlations. The model estimation is feasible in large dimensions and the positive definiteness of the conditional...