We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent …

We study the effect of civil conflict on social capital, focusing on the experience of Uganda during the last decade …

Historical evidence suggests that poor population groups are more likely to engage in conflict. We construct a …

conflict. A new type of bargaining failure due to multiple types of potential conflicts (and hence multiple threat points) is … identified. The theory predicts conflict to be more likely when the geographical distribution of natural resources is uneven and … when a minority group has better chances to win a secessionist rather than a centrist conflict. For sharing rents, resource …