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Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014
Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886924
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What Can a New Keynesian Labor Matching Model Match?
Reicher, Christopher - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009
1980s. Based on the timing of observed fluctuations in interest rates, inflation, and productivity, it appears that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700617
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Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model with sticky wages
Reicher, Christopher - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010
cycle volatility and matching the lack of a long-run relationship between vacancy creation and inflation. With regard to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009021626
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Estimating the Shape of Economic Crises under Heterogeneity
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009
During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal and consistent way....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012878
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Disinflationary Booms?
Merkl, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
This paper shows that announced credible disinflations under inflation targeting lead to a boom in a standard New …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886897
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Labour Market Asymmetries in a Monetary Union
Andersen, Torben M.; Seneca, Martin - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007
This paper takes a first step in analysing how a monetary union performs in the presence of labour market asymmetries. Differences in wage flexibility, market power and country sizes are allowed for in a setting with both country-specific and aggregate shocks. The implications of asymmetries for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076119
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International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR
Dovern, Jonas; Roye, Björn van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886840
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Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions, and economic activity
Bonciani, Dario; Roye, Björn van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886850
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Fixing the Phillips Curve: The Case of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the US
Reitz, Stefan; Slopek, Ulf. D. - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012
inflation arising from higher unemployment in a standard Phillips curve framework is significantly cushioned. This might help to … understand the robustness of inflation especially in the most recent past. In general, the cyclical dynamics of inflation appear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886866
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The Optimal Inflation Rate and Firm-Level Productivity Growth
Weber, Henning - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012
-price model with firm-level productivity growth fits this data and predicts that the optimal long-run inflation rate is positive … long-run inflation near zero. Despite positive long-run inflation, the Taylor principle ensures determinacy in the model … with firm-level productivity growth, and optimal inflation stabilization policies are standard. In a two-sector extension …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886886