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International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR

Dovern, Jonas; Roye, Björn van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886840

On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks

Winkler, Roland; Wohltmann, Hans-Werner - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility in any purely forward-looking model, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, the results are ambiguous when including a backward-looking component. In addition to these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005017501

Stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle

Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998

The paper presents some stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle using aggregated data. The main results are: The determination of turning points in Euroland's business cycle is not very sensitive to the detrending method used, although the level of the recent output gap depends on it....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009277738

Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

Chagny, Odile; Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2001

methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the euro-zone. Conclusions for …The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone … Output Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076100

What drives Endogenous Growth in the United States?

Wesselbaum, Dennis - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010

This paper estimates whether learning-by-doing effects or cleansing effects of recessions drive the endogenous component of productivity in the United States. Using Bayesian estimation techniques we find that external and internal learning-by-doing effects dominate. We find no evidence for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008557213