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Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886924

Estimating the Shape of Economic Crises under Heterogeneity

Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal and consistent way....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012878

Disinflationary Booms?

Merkl, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

This paper shows that announced credible disinflations under inflation targeting lead to a boom in a standard New …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886897

Unemployment in the European Union: A dynamic reappraisal

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Héctor; Snower, Dennis J. - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2003

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955891

International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR

Dovern, Jonas; Roye, Björn van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886840

Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions, and economic activity

Bonciani, Dario; Roye, Björn van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886850

Fixing the Phillips Curve: The Case of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the US

Reitz, Stefan; Slopek, Ulf. D. - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012

inflation arising from higher unemployment in a standard Phillips curve framework is significantly cushioned. This might help to … understand the robustness of inflation especially in the most recent past. In general, the cyclical dynamics of inflation appear …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886866

The Optimal Inflation Rate and Firm-Level Productivity Growth

Weber, Henning - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012

-price model with firm-level productivity growth fits this data and predicts that the optimal long-run inflation rate is positive … long-run inflation near zero. Despite positive long-run inflation, the Taylor principle ensures determinacy in the model … with firm-level productivity growth, and optimal inflation stabilization policies are standard. In a two-sector extension …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886886

Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Business Cycle

Balleer, Almut; Rens, Thijs van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886889

Revisiting the Matching Function

Kohlbrecher, Britta; Merkl, Christian; Nordmeier, Daniela - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

Many labor market models use both idiosyncratic productivity and a vacancy free entry condition. This paper shows that these two features combined generate an equilibrium comovement between matches on the one hand and unemployment and vacancies on the other hand, which is observationally...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886896