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Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Business Cycle

Balleer, Almut; Rens, Thijs van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886889

Some Surprising Facts about Working Time Accounts and the Business Cycle

Balleer, Almut; Gehrke, Britta; Merkl, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

This paper reveals that German firms with working time accounts (WTAs) show a similar separation and hiring behavior in response to revenue changes as firms without WTAs. This finding casts doubt on the popular hypothesis that WTAs were the key driver of the unusually small increase in German...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905562

Unemployment benefits and financial factors in an agent-based macroeconomic model

Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, Mauro - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

This paper is aimed at investigating the effects of government intervention through unemployment benefits on macroeconomic dynamics in an agent-based decentralized matching framework. The major result is that the presence of such a public intervention in the economy stabilizes the aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956079

The Dynamics of Business Investment Following Banking Crises and Normal Recessions

Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2015

I empirically analyze the dynamics of business investment following normal recessions (declines in business investment that are not associated with banking crises) and banking crises. Using a panel of 16 advanced economies, I find evidence for significant non-linear trend reversion or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272151

Sequential Methodology for Signaling Business Cycle Turning Points

Golosnoy, Vasyl; Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005079108

Superstatistics of Labour Productivity in Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Sectors

Ikeda, Yuichi; Fujiwara, Yoshi; Aoyama, Hideaki; … - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008

Labour productivity distribution (dispersion) is studied both theoretically and empirically. Superstatistics is … presented as a natural theoretical framework for productivity. The demand index ê is proposed within this framework as a new … business index. Japanese productivity data covering small-to-medium to large firms from 1996 to 2006 is analyzed and the power …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083398

Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle

Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998

The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle using aggregated quarterly data. The theoretical plausibility, the behavior at business cycle turning points and the mean leads are analyzed. Furthermore, evidence from cross-correlations and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276194

Fiskalpolitik und Konjunktur

Boss, Alfred - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1996

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009277697

Fiscal policy in Latin America: better after all?

Daude, Christian; Melguizo, Ángel; Neut, Alejandro - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010

This paper analyses fiscal policy for several economies in Latin America, from the early nineties to the 2009 crisis. We present original estimates of cyclically-adjusted public revenues for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay implementing the standardised...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008728022

The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not

Hogrefe, Jens; Jannsen, Nils; Meier, Carsten-Patrick - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010

This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008540816