This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data … the future stance of the business cycle and on the volatility of industrial production. The results of our empirical … investigation lead us to reject the hypothesis that financial market volatility causes the cycle or real volatility. …

yield spread relative to German counterparts. Particularly, among the different types of measures, news about the Securities …

allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may make it impossible to correctly …

" - although they generate price inertia, they cannot account for the stylised fact of inflation persistence. It is thus commonly …-price staggering models can generate both substantial inflation persistence and a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long …

The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …

business-cycle state in the target year with quarterly information about its state in the forecasting period, we find that …