Similar Search Results

The Impact of Seasonal and Price Adjustments on the Predictability of German GDP Revisions

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Neuwirth, Stefan - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012

Releases of the GDP are subject to revisions over time. This paper examines the predictability of German GDP revisions using forecast rationality tests. Previous studies of German GDP covering data until 1997 finds that revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are predictable. This paper uses a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421749

Brokers and business cycles: Does financial market volatility cause real fluctuations?

Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data … the future stance of the business cycle and on the volatility of industrial production. The results of our empirical … investigation lead us to reject the hypothesis that financial market volatility causes the cycle or real volatility. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276110

New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles

Haertel, Thomas; Lucke, Bernd - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007

We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and newsdriven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083367

Announcements of ECB Unconventional Programs: Implications for the Sovereign Risk of Italy

Falagiarda, Matteo; Reitz, Stefan - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

yield spread relative to German counterparts. Particularly, among the different types of measures, news about the Securities …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886951

How Persistent are International Capital Flows?

Galstyan, Vahagn - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

This paper documents the dynamic properties of the current account, trade balance and international capital flows. For this purpose, two approaches are taken: probit and a nonparametric estimation. The probabilistic approach shows that, in general, deficits and net inflows tend to be more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083423

The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not

Hogrefe, Jens; Jannsen, Nils; Meier, Carsten-Patrick - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010

This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008540816

How Can Voters Classify an Incumbent under Output Persistence

Caleiro, António - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008

allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may make it impossible to correctly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005097470

Inflation Persistence and the Philips Curve Revisited

Karanassou, Marika; Snower, Dennis - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007

" - although they generate price inertia, they cannot account for the stylised fact of inflation persistence. It is thus commonly …-price staggering models can generate both substantial inflation persistence and a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700522

Primary surplus and debt projections based on estimated fiscal reaction functions for euro area countries

Plödt, Martin; Reicher, Claire - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886925

Multifractal Models in Finance: Their Origin, Propterties, and Applications

Segnon, Mawuli; Lux, Thomas - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886985