Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls....

In this paper we analyze the effects of external shocks on countries in Emerging Asia. For that purpose, we estimate a Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model (BVAR) with an informative prior on the steady state, including variables representing world economic activity, financial conditions,...

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...

This chapter provides an overview over the recently developed so called multifractal (MF) approach for modeling and forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and provide details on different specifications of...

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and...

The standard derivation of a Phillips curve from a DSGE model requires that all variables are measured as deviations from their steady states. But in practice this is not done. The steady state for output is estimated by some statistical procedure, such as the HP filter, and the steady state for...

In a series of summits, leading countries of the world will meet to draw up an in¬ternational arrangement for financial stability. Such a rule system should prevent a financial crisis as we have seen it in 2007 and 2008. It should include appropriate principles of mone¬tary policy, rules for...

The interaction between financial markets and the macroeconomy can be strongly affected by changes in credit market regulations. In order to take account of these effects the authors control explicitly for regime shifts in a system of debt equations for Norway using a common, flexible trend. The...

Empirical evidence has shown that people are unwilling to insure rare losses at subsidized premiums and at the same time take-up insurance for moderate risks at highly loaded premiums. This paper explores whether prospect theory, in particular diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion, can...