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The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations
Roos, Michael W.M.; Schmidt, Ulrich - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011
This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast … forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009216277
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Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy
Millet, Fabien Curto - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007
Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the … therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation expectations data constructed on the basis of both qualitative and … by the data, a finding which in turn leads us to reject the rational expectations hypothesis and casts doubt on the New …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700546
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Coordination in the El Farol Bar problem: The role of social preferences and social networks
Chen, Shu-Heng; Gostoli, Umberto - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
In this paper, the authors continue the pursuit of the self-coordination mechanism as studied in the El Farol Bar problem. However, in addition to efficiency (the optimal use of the public facility), they are also interested in the distribution of the public resources among all agents. Hence,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956095
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On the bottom-up foundations of the banking-macro nexus
Wäckerle, Manuel - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
The complexity of credit money is seen as the central issue in the banking-macro nexus, which the author considers as a structural as well as a process component of the evolving economy. This nexus is significant for the stability/fragility of the economic system because it links the monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010983164
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The WTO and Environmental Provisions: Three Categories of Trade and Environment Linkage
Khalilian, Setareh - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009
The current WTO jurisdiction on linkages of trade and environment is not free of contradictions and has provided for heated debate due to some inconsistencies in past WTO rulings. The article argues that the WTO jurisdiction is not only unclear but also lacks economic reasoning. It aims to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566201
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Expectation-Driven Climate Treaties with Breakthrough Technologies
Narita, Daiju; Wagner, Ulrich J. - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011
The production of bioenergy is considered to be a promising energy source for a sustainable energy mix and it is politically promoted in many countries. With the exception of Brazilian ethanol, bioenergy not competitive to fossil energy sources, and therefore needs to be subsidised. Several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293458
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Climate Policy as Expectation Management?
Narita, Daiju - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011
technology penetration in the future – in extreme cases, expectations prevail over policy. This feature highlights the danger of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854239
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News versus sunspot shocks in a New Keynesian model
Karnizova, Lilia - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010
Separately, news and sunspot shocks have been shown empirically to be determinants of changes in expectations. This … expectations solutions is derived analytically. The analytical characterization allows an explicit comparison of news about future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008522643
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Climate Policy as Expectation Management?
Narita, Daiju - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010
It is believed that the primary economic solution to climate change is an introduction of a carbon pricing system anchored to the social cost of carbon, either as a form of tax or tradable permits. Potentially significant externalities accompanying the introduction of emission-reducing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008584373
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Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model
Møller, Niels Framroze - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008
of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083339