important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably …-of-sample forecasting accuracy for real GDP growth in Germany compared to a model without the indicator and other forecast benchmarks …

the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting …

forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and …

. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important … information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting … forecasting model at all horizons is the one proposed by Gerlach (2004) that includes the inflation gap, the difference between …

-of-sample forecasting capacity relative to univariate time series models of the ARMA(p; q) and ARFIMA(p; d; q) varieties. These tests speak …

forecasting exercises. …