Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2015
systematically overestimate output growth (across all countries) masks considerable differences across different business … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … relationship between a change in trend growth rates and forecast bias, as suggested in the literature, breaks down when only …