allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may make it impossible to correctly …

" - although they generate price inertia, they cannot account for the stylised fact of inflation persistence. It is thus commonly …-price staggering models can generate both substantial inflation persistence and a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long …

the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting …

forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and …

The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …

important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably …-of-sample forecasting accuracy for real GDP growth in Germany compared to a model without the indicator and other forecast benchmarks …