Showing 1 - 10 of 16
allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may make it impossible to correctly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005097470
This paper documents the dynamic properties of the current account, trade balance and international capital flows. For this purpose, two approaches are taken: probit and a nonparametric estimation. The probabilistic approach shows that, in general, deficits and net inflows tend to be more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083423
This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008540816
" - although they generate price inertia, they cannot account for the stylised fact of inflation persistence. It is thus commonly …-price staggering models can generate both substantial inflation persistence and a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700522
The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269107
business-cycle state in the target year with quarterly information about its state in the forecasting period, we find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011208173
the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886925
forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886985
. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important … information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting … forecasting model at all horizons is the one proposed by Gerlach (2004) that includes the inflation gap, the difference between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700521
-of-sample forecasting capacity relative to univariate time series models of the ARMA(p; q) and ARFIMA(p; d; q) varieties. These tests speak …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700525