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Do large recessions reduce output permanently?
Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi; Wolters, Maik - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012
lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real GDP have permanent or temporary effects. In contrast to earlier studies … root hypothesis at the conditional mean of GDP, but also in the tails of the distribution where the lower tail corresponds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886932
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Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Business Cycle
Balleer, Almut; Rens, Thijs van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012
Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886889
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Unemployment benefits and financial factors in an agent-based macroeconomic model
Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, Mauro - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
increase of both the inflation rate and the ratio between public deficit and nominal GDP. The successful action of the public …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956079
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The Dynamics of Business Investment Following Banking Crises and Normal Recessions
Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2015
I empirically analyze the dynamics of business investment following normal recessions (declines in business investment that are not associated with banking crises) and banking crises. Using a panel of 16 advanced economies, I find evidence for significant non-linear trend reversion or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272151
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Sequential Methodology for Signaling Business Cycle Turning Points
Golosnoy, Vasyl; Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009
The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005079108
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Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle
Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998
The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle using aggregated quarterly … monetary aggregates, nominal interest rates and the interest rate spread are recommended as leading indicators, whereas survey … data on order inflow and production expectations are the best coincident indicators. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276194
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Business Cycle Volatility in Germany
Buch, Claudia M.; Doepke, Joerg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2002
Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755211
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Assessing the Effects of the Terrorist Attacks on the U.S. Economy
Strauß, Hubert - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2001
article discusses the effects of the attacks on real GDP taking the Kiel InstituteÂ’s forecast of September 10 as the baseline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818792
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National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises
Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009
, international transmission effects then would lead to significant losses of GDP growth in several other countries, notably in Europe …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818914
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The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not
Hogrefe, Jens; Jannsen, Nils; Meier, Carsten-Patrick - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010
This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008540816