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Do large recessions reduce output permanently?

Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi; Wolters, Maik - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012

lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real GDP have permanent or temporary effects. In contrast to earlier studies … root hypothesis at the conditional mean of GDP, but also in the tails of the distribution where the lower tail corresponds …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886932

A Note on Banking and Housing Crises and the Strength of Recoveries

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Jannsen, Nils; Meier, Carsten-Patrick - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2015

We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounce-back in the level of output during the recovery, we find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011141148

Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Business Cycle

Balleer, Almut; Rens, Thijs van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2012

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886889

Unemployment benefits and financial factors in an agent-based macroeconomic model

Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, Mauro - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

increase of both the inflation rate and the ratio between public deficit and nominal GDP. The successful action of the public …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956079

Sequential Methodology for Signaling Business Cycle Turning Points

Golosnoy, Vasyl; Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005079108

Assessing the Effects of the Terrorist Attacks on the U.S. Economy

Strauß, Hubert - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2001

article discusses the effects of the attacks on real GDP taking the Kiel InstituteÂ’s forecast of September 10 as the baseline …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818792

National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises

Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

, international transmission effects then would lead to significant losses of GDP growth in several other countries, notably in Europe …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818914

Business Cycle Volatility in Germany

Buch, Claudia M.; Doepke, Joerg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2002

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755211

The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not

Hogrefe, Jens; Jannsen, Nils; Meier, Carsten-Patrick - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010

This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008540816

Extensive vs. Intensive Margin in Germany and the United States: Any Differences?

Merkl, Christian; Wesselbaum, Dennis - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

This papers analyzes the role of the extensive vis-à-vis the intensive margin of labor adjustment in Germany and the United States. The contribution is twofold. First, we provide an update of older U.S. studies and confirm the view that the extensive margin (i.e., the adjustment in the number...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531660