Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the … therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation expectations data constructed on the basis of both qualitative and … by the data, a finding which in turn leads us to reject the rational expectations hypothesis and casts doubt on the New …

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that … indicate that in many cases the gains in forecasting accuracy relative to a simple univariate autoregression are only moderate …

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast … forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the …

and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as market conditions summarized by stock-market misalignments and … recent returns change. We find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the long run. Short-run expectations …

pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro …

mispredictions of the institutes. Thus, forecasters' expectations are not rational. <p>Der Beitrag untersucht die Ursachen von …

results indicate that there is clearly evidence that complicated forecasting models are usually superior to simple AR …