Showing 1 - 10 of 57
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error correction model with quarterly data for the Euro Area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700619
-of-sample forecasting capacity relative to univariate time series models of the ARMA(p; q) and ARFIMA(p; d; q) varieties. These tests speak …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700525
Maximum likelihood estimation of discretely observed diffusion processes is mostly hampered by the lack of a closed form solution of the transient density. It has recently been argued that a most generic remedy to this problem is the numerical solution of the pertinent Fokker-Planck (FP) or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905567
This paper shows how exact solutions for the transient density of a large class of continuous-time Markov switching models can be obtained. We illustrate the pertinent approach for both simple diffusion models with a small number of regimes as well as for the more complicated so-called Poisson...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010695985
for realized volatility (RV). We estimate the RV-MSM model via Generalized Method of Moments and perform forecasting by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009351451
pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011162483
We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011208177
The number of studies published focusing on people’s preferences for green electricity has increased steadily, making it more and more difficult to identify key explanatory factors that determine people’s willingness-to-pay (WTP). Based on results of a meta-regression our results indicate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886910
Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die Zusammenhänge zwischen Erdölpreisen, Kraftstoffpreisen, verbrauchten Mengen und dem Energiesteueraufkommen. Wesentliche Ergebnisse sind, dass die verbrauchten Kraftstoffmengen mit der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion und den Erdölpreisen schwanken. Vor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886916
We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that … indicate that in many cases the gains in forecasting accuracy relative to a simple univariate autoregression are only moderate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887025