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The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations
Roos, Michael W.M.; Schmidt, Ulrich - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011
This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast … forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009216277
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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments
Hommes, Cars; Lux, Thomas - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008
propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains … all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755154
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Enjoyment takes time: Some implications for choice theory
Nisticò, Sergio - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014
The paper suggests that casting the choice problem in terms of alternative time-consuming activities can foster the fruitful cross-fertilization between economics and psychology along the lines suggested by Scitovsky in the Joyless Economy. The first part emphasizes how mainstream, utility-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010983170
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Black swans, dragon kings, and Bayesian risk management
Haas, Armin; Onischka, Mathias; Fucik, Markus - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
In the past decades, risk management in the financial community has been dominated by data-intensive statistical methods which rely on short historical time series to estimate future risk. Many observers consider this approach as a contributor to the current financial crisis, as a long period of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956151
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Uncertainty and economic analysis of climate change : a survey of approaches and findings
Peterson, Sonja - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2006
The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955710
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The Contribution of Economics to the Analysis of Climate Change and Uncertainty: A Survey of Approaches and Findings
Peterson, Sonja - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2004
There is a general agreement that (a) climate change is one of the most serious environmental problems, that (b) the analysis of climate change is confronted with a large degree of uncertainty and (c) that these uncertainties need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818798
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Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy
Millet, Fabien Curto - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007
Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the … therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation expectations data constructed on the basis of both qualitative and … by the data, a finding which in turn leads us to reject the rational expectations hypothesis and casts doubt on the New …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700546
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On Determinacy and Learnability in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment
Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.; Schaling, Eric - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009
We analyze determinacy and stability under learning (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibria in the Blanchard …-stability shrinks. These rules perform worse according to these two dimensions when hiring costs go up. Finally, under expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566204
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Chance Theory: A Separation of Riskless and Risky Utility
Schmidt, Ulrich; Horst, Zank - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013
rationality principles like first-order stochastic dominance or transitivity. Decision makers with CT-preferences always prefer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886918
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Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?
Da Silva, Sergio - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009
The author argues that it is microeconomics that needs foundations, not macroeconomics. Preferences need to be built on biology, and, in particular, on neuroscience. In contrast, macroeconomics could benefit from rationalizations of aggregate economic phenomena by non-equilibrium statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083350