the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting …

This chapter provides an overview over the recently developed so called multifractal (MF) approach for modeling and … forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and …

The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … classical estimates (BACE) but also construct dynamic factor models (DFM). Within the BACE framework they apply two diversified … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure …

important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably … variables. Therefore, I derive a financial market stress indicator (FMSI) for Germany and the Euro Area using a dynamic …-of-sample forecasting accuracy for real GDP growth in Germany compared to a model without the indicator and other forecast benchmarks …