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Financial stress and economic dynamics: an application to France

Aboura, Sofiane; Roye, Björn van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2013

. Therefore, this index can be used in real time as an early warning signal of systemic risk in the French financial sector …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886871

Monetary Ease: A Factor behind Financial Crises? Some Evidence from OECD Countries

Ahrend, Rudiger - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008

This paper addresses the question of whether and how easy monetary policy may lead to excesses in financial and real asset markets and ultimately result in financial dislocation. It presents evidence suggesting that periods when short-term interest rates have been persistently and significantly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005059044

DSGE Models and Central Banks

Tovar, Camilo Ernesto - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083409

Estimating the Shape of Economic Crises under Heterogeneity

Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

During the ongoing financial crisis the analysis of similar historical crises has gained more and more attention among economic researchers and forecasters. Existing studies, however, do not tackle the immense heterogeneity that is present in cross-country samples in a formal and consistent way....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012878

The Great Recession versus the Great Depression: stylized facts on siblings that were given different foster parents

Aiginger, Karl - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2010

This paper compares the depth of the Recent Crisis and the Great Depression. We use a new data set to compare the drop in activity in the industrialized countries for seven activity indicators. This is done under the assumption that the Recent Crisis leveled off in mid-2009 for production and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615592

Contagion effect of financial crisis on OECD stock markets

Kazi, Irfan Akbar; Guesmi, Khaled; Kaabia, Olfa - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011

In this paper we investigate the contagion effect between stock markets of U.S and sixteen OECD countries due to Global …) structural break test. We find a significant increase in the mean of dynamic conditional correlation coefficient between U.S and … between the US and the OECD stock markets. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009149314

Macroeconomic Interval Forecasting: The Case of Assessing the Risk of Deflation in Germany

Borbély, Dora; Meier, Carsten-Patrick - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2003

to assess the risk of deflationary developments occurring in Germany over the next four years. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700569

Sustainable Intensification of Pineapple Farming in Ghana: Training and Complexity

Wüpper, David; Sauer, Johannes; Kleemann, Linda - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

includes restricted credit access and uninsured risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010960600

Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle

Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2015

Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the state of the business cycle. Our results indicate that the general result that forecasters systematically overestimate output growth (across all countries)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011208173

Macroeconomic Shocks and Foreign Bank Assets

Buch, Claudia M.; Carstensen, Kai; Schertler, Andrea - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2005

Changes in foreign asset holdings are one channel through which agents adjust to macroeconomic shocks. In this paper …, we test whether foreign bank assets change as a result of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks. We frame our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886927