contribution of fluctuations in inflation to this particular link. In the data, a temporary rise in inflation causes real commodity … prices to rise, as does a rise in trend inflation. We find that a simple dynamic equilibrium model of commodity supply and … demand gives a realistic response of real commodity prices to inflation. Based on historical simulations, shocks to inflation …

provide the most precise forecasts for a set of eleven core macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth and CPI inflation …

rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation persistence to differ across conditional quantiles, this is a …We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the … conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation …

Dynamic econometric models are carefully built to analyse counterfactually the globalisation effect on inflation for … impact as far as inflation persistence is concerned while the impact on inflation variability can be positive as well as … negative. Overall, globalisation is found to have contributed positively to lowering rather than stabilising inflation during …

This article proposes a multivariate model of inflation with conditionally heteroskedastic common and country …-2009. It is found that various model specifications considered fit well the first and second order dynamics of inflation in the … G7. The estimated volatility of the common inflation component captures the international effects of the ‘Great …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other … margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges …