This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other … margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges …

-of-sample forecasting capacity relative to univariate time series models of the ARMA(p; q) and ARFIMA(p; d; q) varieties. These tests speak …

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

forecasting exercises. …

In this paper we introduce and test the hypothesis that the relation between inflation and unemployment has been in … 1975 and 1980 after the first (or the second) oil price shock in autumn 1973. During the disin°ation period, inflation and … their favour and the Central Bank fighting against inflation. Since the wage and price setters did not fully believe in an …

pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro …