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The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank

Falch, Nina Skrove; Nymoen, Ragnar - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other … forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. The authors find that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647561

A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Héctor; Snower, Dennis J. - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2005

This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on ?frictional growth,? describing the interplay between nominal frictions and money growth. When the money supply grows in the presence of price inertia (due to staggered wage contracts with time discounting), the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955553

Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007

This paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call “frictional growth,” i.e. the interaction between money growth and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700606

The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach

Tillmann, Peter; Wolters, Maik - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905561

Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886924

Inflation Persistence and the Philips Curve Revisited

Karanassou, Marika; Snower, Dennis - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007

A major criticism against staggered nominal contracts is that they give rise to the so called "persistency puzzle" - although they generate price inertia, they cannot account for the stylised fact of inflation persistence. It is thus commonly asserted that, in the context of the new Phillips...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700522

Comparing Monetary Policy Strategies: Towards a Generalized Reaction Function

Hammermann, Felix - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2003

There seems to be no consensus in the literature with respect to monetary policy strategies in combination with flexible exchange rate regimes. Therefore, this paper determines what the alternative strategies inflation targeting, Taylor rule, monetary conditions index, and managed floating have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700541

Die Bedeutung monetärer Größen für die deutsche Wachstumsschwäche 1995-2005

Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils; Scheide, Joachim - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2009

Between 1995 and 2005, the German economy has experienced a phase of weak economic growth. We analyze whether this weak growth performance can be attributed to the stance of monetary conditions during that period. We show that the real effective exchange rate did have almost no dampening effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566192

The Exchange Rate Targeting of Central Banks Revised: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates

Lahtinen, Markus; Mäki-Fränt, Petri - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007

Using a New Keynesian macro model, the paper reconsiders the question, whether the central banks should directly respond to exchange rate movements. It is assumed that the transmission of monetary policy to output is carried out by the long-term interest rate, which is determined as a sum of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005097478

DSGE Models and Central Banks

Tovar, Camilo Ernesto - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083409

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