I study the performance of single predictor bridge equation models as well as a wide range of model selection and pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro area GDP growth. I explore to what extend model selection...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from...

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating information, yet on different...

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

We use the concept of predictability as presented in Diebold and Kilian (2001) to assess how well the growth rates of various components of German GDP can be forecasted. In particular, it is analyzed how well different commonly used leading indicators can increase predictability of these time...

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information...

While DSGE models have been widely used by central banks for policy analysis, they seem to have been ineffective in calibrating the models for anticipating financial crises. To bring DSGE models closer to real situations, some of researchers have revised the traditional DSGE models. One of the...

This article proposes a multivariate model of inflation with conditionally heteroskedastic common and country-specific components. The model is estimated in one-step via Quasi-Maximum Likelihood for the G7 countries for the period Q1-1960 to Q4-2009. It is found that various model specifications...

With the widespread application of inventory control Systems in industry and trade and a fast growing Services sector the influence of inventory changes on the business sector should become less important over time. However, the empirical eyidence for Germany in the period 1970-1994 shows that...

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation...