Showing 1 - 10 of 171
This paper shows that ination in industrialized countries is largely a global phenom- enon. First, inations of (22) OECD countries have a common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70% of their variance. This large variance share that is associated to Global Ination is not only due to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700550
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other … margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647561
The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755268
Dynamic econometric models are carefully built to analyse counterfactually the globalisation effect on inflation for … impact as far as inflation persistence is concerned while the impact on inflation variability can be positive as well as … negative. Overall, globalisation is found to have contributed positively to lowering rather than stabilising inflation during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956145
We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the … conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation … rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation persistence to differ across conditional quantiles, this is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010905561
provide the most precise forecasts for a set of eleven core macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth and CPI inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887025
domestic currency, increases interest rates, effectively controls inflation rates and reduces output. They do not find any …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956075
contribution of fluctuations in inflation to this particular link. In the data, a temporary rise in inflation causes real commodity … prices to rise, as does a rise in trend inflation. We find that a simple dynamic equilibrium model of commodity supply and … demand gives a realistic response of real commodity prices to inflation. Based on historical simulations, shocks to inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009292398
Theoretical models point at various channels of the impact of inflation on corporate investment. This article attempts … corporate investment and inflation on the sample of 21 OECD countries in the years 1960-2005. The obtained negative relationship … relationship: marginal effect on corporate investment is higher at inflation rates between 3 and 5.5 per cent. These results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010983175
We use the concept of predictability as presented in Diebold and Kilian (2001) to assess how well the growth rates of various components of German GDP can be forecasted. In particular, it is analyzed how well different commonly used leading indicators can increase predictability of these time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818772