This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using...

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions....

This paper compares the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Western Germany using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth. Reallocative shocks have no effect on the natural rate of unemployment in either country, and there is mild evidence that...

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth for the United States from 1960 through 2011. Reallocative shocks (which primarily measure construction and technology busts) have little...

Shocks driving the business cycle have different effects on low-skilled and high-skilled workers. This paper studies the effects of temporary and permanent sector-specific shocks in a New Keynesian matching model. We show that temporary sector-specific shocks have reallaction and aggregate...

The built environment has been identified as one of the cost effective platforms for reducing energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. With policies and the know-how in existence, the real estate sector has already adopted measures such as building codes and energy efficiency labels to drive...

This paper investigates the nature of the IV method for tackling endogeneity. By tracing the rise and fall of the method in macroeconometrics and its subsequent revival in microeconometrics, it pins the method down to an implicit model respecification device - breaking the circular causality of...

In order to understand from where the profits or monetary profits of capitalists and firms emerge the author examined the phrase of Marx, 'Die Gesamtklasse der Kapitalisten kann nichts aus der Zirkulation herausziehen, was nicht vorher hineingeworfen war.' (The class of capitalists cannot...

The article examines causal relationships between sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) prices for the BRICS and most important EU economies (Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain) during the European debt crisis. The cross-correlation function (CCF) approach used in the research distinguishes...

The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is...