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A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if the hypothesis holds, then market valuations must follow a random walk. This postulate has frequently been criticized on the basis of empirical evidence. Yet the assertion itself incurs what we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956093
Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is constructed, the volatility process being driven by fractional noise. Price return statistics and asymptotic behavior are derived from the model and compared with data....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083402
Alan Greenspan's paper (March 2010) presents his retrospective view of the crisis. His theme has several parts. First, the housing price bubble, its subsequent collapse and the financial crisis were not predicted either by the market, the FED, the IMF or the regulators in the years leading to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543004
This paper provides micro-econometric evidence on the relevance of non-market interaction for the timing of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the French and German primary equity markets. The surge of IPO volume in the late 1990s appears to be consistent with rational expectations, not with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566212
We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors' mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a tri-variate vector autoregression for short-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755276
Governments may draft contracts with market agents for allocating subsidies and pursuing specific policy goals. Contract enforcement via binding commitments is difficult, however, when exogenous (environmental) and endogenous (behavioural) risks interact. Analyzing the old debt compromise in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009249782
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276757
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276397
In this paper, we develop a financial stress index for France that can be used as a real-time composite indicator for the state of financial stability in France. We take 17 financial variables from different market segments and extract a common stress component using a dynamic approximate factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886871
In this paper we empirically investigate potential determinants of allowance (EUA) price dynamics in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during Phase II. In contrast to previous papers, we analyze a significantly longer time series, place particular emphasis on the importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886917