contribution of fluctuations in inflation to this particular link. In the data, a temporary rise in inflation causes real commodity … prices to rise, as does a rise in trend inflation. We find that a simple dynamic equilibrium model of commodity supply and … demand gives a realistic response of real commodity prices to inflation. Based on historical simulations, shocks to inflation …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other … margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges …

good inflation. In addition, the Ramsey optimal monetary policy can be approximated reasonably well with a Taylor …-type interest rate rule with weights on both inflation rates and output …

vector autoregression and model averaging techniques, where aggregation takes place before, during and after the estimation … provide the most precise forecasts for a set of eleven core macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth and CPI inflation …

quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error …Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the … inflation. The response of the HICP is strongly positive. Other factors such as raw material prices and unit labor costs also …

inflation expectations but learns about them from economic outcomes, which are in part the result of the disinflation policy … that under the DOP inflation stay between the levels implied by the CEP and the CP. A novel result is that this holds … irrespective of the initial level of inflation. Moreover, while at high levels of inherited inflation the DOP moves closer to the …

-price model with firm-level productivity growth fits this data and predicts that the optimal long-run inflation rate is positive … long-run inflation near zero. Despite positive long-run inflation, the Taylor principle ensures determinacy in the model … with firm-level productivity growth, and optimal inflation stabilization policies are standard. In a two-sector extension …

with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the … interest rate bound, interest rates and monetary aggregates provided a misleading indicator as to the true stance of inflation …