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DSGE Models and Central Banks
Tovar, Camilo Ernesto - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008
Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083409
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The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation
Reicher, Claire - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2014
The construction bust which accompanied the Great Recession, and the accompanying need to shift workers across sectors, have provoked a discussion about mismatch and the Beveridge Curve, alongside a discussion about firm-level dispersion. These discussions echo an ongoing discussion about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887017
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Taking a DSGE Model to the Data Meaningfully
Franchi, Massimo; Jusélius, Katarina - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007
all basic assumptions underlying the theory model should be formulated as a set of testable hypotheses on the long …-run structure of a CVAR model, a so called ?theory consistent hypothetical scenario?. The advantage of such a scenario is that if … forces us to formulate all testable implications of the basic hypotheses underlying a theory model. We demonstrate that most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083420
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Brokers and business cycles: Does financial market volatility cause real fluctuations?
Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998
This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276110
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Real and Financial Integration in Europe ; Evidence for the Accession States and for the Pre-Ins
Buch, Claudia M.; Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1999
The process of European integration has gained considerable momentum during the past couple of years. This paper provides an assessment of the degree of integration of both the accession states of central and eastern Europe and of the pre-ins for monetary union with respect to Germany. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700641
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A simple decomposition of the variance of output growth across countries
Reicher, Christopher - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011
This paper outlines a simple regression-based method to decompose the variance of an aggregate time series into the variance of its components, which is then applied to measure the relative contributions of productivity, hours per worker, and employment to cyclical output growth across a panel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009132526
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Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions
Dovern, Jonas; Ziegler, Christina - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008
In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566178
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Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? The Case of Germany
Gottschalk, Jan; Zandweghe, Willem Van - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2001
Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755265
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The International Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks
Jannsen, Nils; Klein, Melanie - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011
This paper analyzes the international transmission effects of euro area monetary policy shocks in to other western European countries, namely the United Kingdom, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, and Norway. For this purpose, we use a structural VAR model of the euro area and augment it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009216278
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The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank
Falch, Nina Skrove; Nymoen, Ragnar - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2011
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647561