forecast the dynamics of the fiscal aggregates under different convergence, growth, and interest rate scenarios and investigate … the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting …

forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and …

The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic …. It can be concluded from their analyses that although their methods are atheoretical they provide reasonable forecast … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure …

using forecast rationality tests. Previous studies of German GDP covering data until 1997 finds that revisions of real …

-of-sample forecasting accuracy for real GDP growth in Germany compared to a model without the indicator and other forecast benchmarks … important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably … inflation rate. Additionally, there is a substantial and persistent decline in short-term nominal interest rates. I find that …

information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting … forecasting model at all horizons is the one proposed by Gerlach (2004) that includes the inflation gap, the difference between …In this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way …

-of-sample forecasting capacity relative to univariate time series models of the ARMA(p; q) and ARFIMA(p; d; q) varieties. These tests speak …