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We decompose the conditional expected mutual fund return in ve parts.Two parts, selectivity and expert market timing, can be attributed to manager skill, and three to variation in market exposure that can be achieved by private investors as well.The dynamic model that we use to estimate the...
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In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly … simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index …
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Hedge funds databases are typicall subject to high attrition rates because of fund termination and self-selection.Even when all funds are included up to their last available return, one cannot prevent that ex post conditioning biases affect standard estimates of performance persistence.In this...
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