Abstract: This chapter first summarizes Response Surface Methodology (RSM), which started with Box and Wilson’s article in 1951 on RSM for real, non-simulated systems. RSM is a stepwise heuristic that uses first-order polynomials to approximate the response surface locally. An estimated...

This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial...

Abstract: Factor screening searches for the really important inputs (factors) among the many inputs that are changed in a realistic simulation experiment. Sequential bifurcation (SB) is a sequential method that changes groups of inputs simultaneously. SB is the most efficient and effective...

Design Of Experiments (DOE) is needed for experiments with real-life systems, and with either deterministic or random simulation models. This contribution discusses the different types of DOE for these three domains, but focusses on random simulation. DOE may have two goals: sensitivity analysis...

Textbooks on Design Of Experiments invariably start by explaining why one-factor-at-a -time (OAT) is an inferior method. Here we will show that in a model with all interactions a variant of OAT is extremely efficient, provided that we only have non-negative parameters and that there are only a...

Abstract: This article surveys optimization of simulated systems. The simulation may be either deterministic or random. The survey reflects the author’s extensive experience with simulation-optimization through Kriging (or Gaussian process) metamodels. The analysis of these metamodels may use...

We derive intrinsic Kriging, using Matherons intrinsic random functions which eliminate the trend in classic Kriging. We formulate this intrinsic Kriging as a metamodel in deterministic and random simulation models. For random simulation we derive an experimental design that also specifies the...