Similar Search Results

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252271

On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703752

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763710

Forecasting with Spatial Panel Data

Baltagi, Badi H.; Bresson, Georges; Pirotte, Alain - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

This paper compares various forecasts using panel data with spatial error correlation. The true data generating process is assumed to be a simple error component regression model with spatial remainder disturbances of the autoregressive or moving average type. The best linear unbiased predictor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005030892

The Internet as a Data Source for Advancement in Social Sciences

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2015

. Internet data can successfully be applied to a very wide range of human resource issues including forecasting (e.g. of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011198534

A Global View of Cross-Border Migration

di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ortega, Francesc - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

This paper evaluates the welfare impact of observed levels of migration and remittances in both origins and destinations, using a quantitative multi-sector model of the global economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data on 60 developed and developing countries. Our framework accounts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011279236

Welfare in Models of Trade with Heterogeneous Firms

Janiak, Alexandre - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

I illustrate that the welfare improvement property of the Melitz model is due to the shape of the aggregate labor demand curve, which slopes upwards. By slightly changing some assumptions in the model, this curve may have a negative slope. In this case, increases in aggregate productivity result...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005233865

International Trade and Firm Performance: A Survey of Empirical Studies since 2006

Wagner, Joachim - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011

The literature on international trade and firm performance grows exponentially. This paper attempts to summarize what we learn from this literature to guide both future empirical and theoretical work in this area, and public debates and policy makers, in an evidence-based way. The focus is on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009277811

Cross-Border Mergers and National Champions in an Integrating Economy

Suedekum, Jens - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006

We introduce a simple oligopolistic trade model with international transportation costs, and analyze the profitability and the social desirability of national vs. international mergers in relation to three different issues, (i) the level of trade freeness, (ii) the possibility of rent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822177

How Outsourcing Affects Bilateral Political Relations

Polachek, Solomon W. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

One issue the literature neglects is how outsourcing stimulates trade (imports, exports and foreign direct investment), thereby affecting political relations. However, at least as far back as 1750, economic philosophers such as Baron de Montesquieu in his L’Esprit des Lois, argued, “peace is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822680