Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 115
Cover Image
Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004
This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763710
Cover Image
On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?
Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005
This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703752
Cover Image
Real Time Econometrics
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004
This paper considers the problems facing decision makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763536
Cover Image
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups – industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566406
Cover Image
Economies of Scale in the Tunisian Industries
Heshmati, Almas; Haouas, Ilham - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011
To date, empirical investigations of trade liberalization under the conditions of increasing returns to scale (IRS) and imperfect competition (IC) have either assumed or imposed the market and productive structures necessary for such a model. However, of the recent IRS/IC models used to simulate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024588
Cover Image
An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters
Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012
This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550529
Cover Image
Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy
Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009
This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008527294
Cover Image
Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows
Assenmacher, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2007
. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700993
Cover Image
Financial Stress, Family Conflict, and Youths' Successful Transition to Adult Roles
Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Ribar, David C. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009
We analyze the effect of mothers' and youths' reports of family financial stress and conflict on youths' transitions into adult roles. We find that mothers’ reports of financial stresses and borrowing constraints are associated with earlier transitions to inactivity and public assistance,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008558929
Cover Image
Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012
Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252271