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In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822387
inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf … bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can replicate the strong persistence and heterogeneity observed in … fact that liquidity constrained workers, facing earnings uncertainty in the context of imperfect unemployment insurance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002829
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854242
In this paper, we propose a search and matching model with nominal stickiness à la Calvo in the wage bargaining. We analyze the properties of the model, first, in the context of a typical real business cycle model driven by stochastic productivity shocks and second, in a fully specified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703177
period. The workers' bargaining power in the hours negotiation affects both unemployment volatility and inflation persistence … cost determination. This set-up produces realistic labor market statistics together with inflation persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703208
" - although they generate price inertia, they cannot account for the stylised fact of inflation persistence. It is thus commonly … asserted that, in the context of the new Phillips curve (NPC), inflation is a jump variable. We argue that this "persistency … equilibrium setting (in which real variables not only affect inflation, but are also influenced by it), standard wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703349
employment and hours affecting inflation dynamics via marginal costs. We find that the response of unemployment and inflation to … persistent movements of aggregate inflation. Moreover, the impact of a monetary policy shock on unemployment and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703779
the inflation rate, but they very seldom cut nominal wages. This pattern suggests that workers exhibit a special … compare the inflation rate to the wage change before it becomes clear whether the change increases or decreases utility, thus … inflation rate. Although emotions may benefit individual workers, by strengthening their bargaining position and preventing wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763663
and increases with monetary uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008548722
This paper provides a new explanation of why inflation is sluggish in response to aggregate demand shocks and why … rationale for a prolonged inverse relation between inflation and unemployment. The paper suggests that the interaction of … inflation persistence and unemployment persistence may offer a possible explanation of high and prolonged European unemployment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702997