This paper fills a gap in the literature by investigating whether temporary agency employment substitutes regular employment. To take into account the interaction between the two employment forms, we identify a SVAR model with correlated innovations by volatility regimes. We show that a positive...

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are...

This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the...

In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows...

This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK unemployment, namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25 years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empirical "natural rate of unemployment" (NRU). Our analysis suggests that the British NRU has remained...

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Die große Wirtschaftskrise hat bisher nur verhaltene Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen. Angesichts der unsicheren weiteren konjunkturellen Entwicklung, der schlechten Auslastung der Arbeitskräfte in den Unternehmen und der hohen Kurzarbeit erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen...