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present the basic idea and document the power of the indicator for the purpose of nowcasting. The data will be regularly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327832
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854242
This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008678691
One suggested hypothesis for the dramatic rise in household borrowing that preceded the financial crisis is that low-income households increased their demand for credit to finance higher consumption expenditures in order to "keep up" with higherincome households. Using household level data on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884200
We study asset-tested unemployment insurance in an incomplete markets model with moral hazard during job search. Asset testing has two counteracting effects on welfare. On the one hand, it improves consumption insurance by introducing state contingent transfers to agents most in need. On the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884271
Many households have insufficient savings to handle moderate and routine consumption shocks. Many of these financially fragile households also have the highest lottery expenditures as a proportion of income. This combination suggests that Prize-Linked Savings (PLS) accounts, that combine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959657
In this paper we analyze a mechanism that is particularly relevant to the workings of the Great Recession: we explain how easier home financing and higher homeownership rates increase unemployment rates. To this purpose we build a model of job search with liquid wealth accumulation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212745
We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the saving behaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of the effect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996 as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005233842
From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 8 percentage points, to about one quarter of disposable income. We use household-level data to explain why households are postponing consumption despite rapid income growth. Tracing cohorts over time indicates a virtual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005247694
We compare different designs that have been used to test for an impact of time horizon on discounting, using real incentives and two representative data sets. With the most commonly used type of design we replicate the typical finding of declining (hyperbolic) discounting, but with other designs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652536