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Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups – industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566406

Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Germany

Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2010

This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008678691

Output-Employment Relationship across Sectors: A Long- versus Short-Run Perspective

Sahin, Afsin; Tansel, Aysit; Berument, Hakan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2013

This paper investigates the nature of the output-employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period 1988-2008. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships for the aggregate output with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884236

The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government Policy

Congregado, Emilio; Golpe, Antonio A.; Parker, Simon C. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore the macro dynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the US. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macro dynamic structure in which cyclical fluctuations have persistent effects on the natural rate of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005233799

China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, Hashem; Rebucci, Alessandro - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011

The international business cycle is very important for Latin America’s economic performance as the recent global crisis vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission mechanism of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009225765

Volatility and Growth: Governments are Key

Jetter, Michael - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2013

paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959641

Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis

Nagore García, Amparo; van Soest, Arthur - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884159

Why is Old Workers' Labor Market More Volatile? Unemployment Fluctuations over the Life-Cycle

Hairault, Jean-Olivier; Langot, François; Sopraseuth, … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

Since the last recession, it is usually argued that older workers are less affected by the economic downturn because their unemployment rate rose less than the one of prime-age workers. This view is a myth: older workers are more sensitive to the business cycle. We document volatilities of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884226

Newborn Health and the Business Cycle: Is It Good to Be Born in Bad Times?

Aparicio Fenoll, Ainhoa; Gonzalez, Libertad - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

We study the effect of the cycle on the health of newborn babies using 30 years of birth-certificate data for Spain. We find that babies are born healthier when the local unemployment rate is high. Although fertility is lower during recessions, the effect on health is not the result of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884258

Good Skills in Bad Times: Cyclical Skill Mismatch and the Long-Term Effects of Graduating in a Recession

Liu, Kai; Salvanes, Kjell G.; Sørensen, Erik Ø. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

We show that cyclical skill mismatch, defined as mismatch between the skills supplied by college graduates and skills demanded by hiring industries, is an important mechanism behind persistent career loss from graduating in recessions. Using Norwegian data, we find a strong countercyclical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010884273

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