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Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for … business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854242

On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703752

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763710

Characteristics of Unemployment Dynamics: The Chain Reaction Approach

Karanassou, Marika; Snower, Dennis - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2000

The aim of this paper is to analyze and estimate salient characteristics of unemployment dynamics. Movements in unemployment are viewed as ‘ ‘ chain reactions’’ of responses to labor market shocks, working their way through systems of interacting lagged adjustment processes. In the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703122

Unemployment in the European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2002

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703234

Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2003

This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703238

Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach

Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2002

In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822387

Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate: An Account of UK Unemployment

Henry, Brian; Karanassou, Marika; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 1999

This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK unemployment, namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25 years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empirical "natural rate of unemployment" (NRU). Our analysis suggests that the British NRU has remained...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763790

Expected Inflation, Sunspots Equilibria and Persistent Unemployment Fluctuations

Dufourt, Frédéric; Lloyd-Braga, Teresa; Modesto, Leonor - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002829

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005004554