. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of …

money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two … long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation … significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the …

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

-time jobs). The most common use of these models is the simulation of tax-transfer reforms. The simulation is usually interpreted … simulation procedure, however, typically keeps fixed the estimated alternative-specific constants. In this note we argue that … development of a simulation procedure consistent with the comparative static interpretation. The procedure is illustrated with an …

. All the reforms are calibrated so as to preserve fiscal neutrality. The simulation adopts a methodology that allows for …