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Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

This paper considers the problems facing decision makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763536

Economies of Scale in the Tunisian Industries

Heshmati, Almas; Haouas, Ilham - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011

To date, empirical investigations of trade liberalization under the conditions of increasing returns to scale (IRS) and imperfect competition (IC) have either assumed or imposed the market and productive structures necessary for such a model. However, of the recent IRS/IC models used to simulate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024588

Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009

This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008527294

Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows

Assenmacher, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2007

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700993

An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

Venezuela), plus Indonesia which is a former member, and Mexico and Norway, which are members of the OECD. Overall, the test … income is established for six of the nine economies considered. The exceptions, Mexico and Norway, do not possess sufficient … reserves of Mexico and Norway are expected to last 9 and 10 years respectively, as compared to reserve-production ratios of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550529

Deriving the New Quantity Equation: An Approach for a Closed and an Open Economy

Welfens, Paul J. J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2014

This theoretical contribution shows a simple way in which the quantity equation can be derived as a long-term equilibrium solution for the case of a closed economy and an open economy, respectively. It is shown first for the case of a closed economy which parameters stand behind "velocity" and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010891175

Causal Effects of Monetary Shocks: Semiparametric Conditional Independence Tests with a Multinomial Propensity Score

Angrist, Joshua; Kuersteiner, Guido M. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008

Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822414

Price Dynamics and Production Lags

Lindbeck, Assar; Snower, Dennis J. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 1999

This paper provides a new explanation of why inflation is sluggish in response to aggregate demand shocks and why aggregate output changes as result of such shocks. We argue that these phenomena are related to lags between inputs and outputs in the production process, "production lags" for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702997

Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy

di Giovanni, Julian; McCrary, Justin; von Wachter, Till - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2005

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703034

Nominal Wage Rigidities in a New Keynesian Model with Frictional Unemployment

Bodart, Vincent; Walque, Gregory De; Pierrard, Olivier; … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006

In this paper, we propose a search and matching model with nominal stickiness à la Calvo in the wage bargaining. We analyze the properties of the model, first, in the context of a typical real business cycle model driven by stochastic productivity shocks and second, in a fully specified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703177