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Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703211
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Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy
Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2009
This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focus on short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008527294
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China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, Hashem; Rebucci, Alessandro - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011
to Latin America and the rest of emerging Asia (excluding China and India) GDP has not undergone any significant change … vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009225765
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Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762416
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On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables
Pagan, Adrian; Pesaran, M. Hashem - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2007
This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822651
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Are Drone Strikes Effective in Afghanistan and Pakistan? On the Dynamics of Violence between the United States and the Taliban
Jaeger, David A.; Siddique, Zahra - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011
Strikes by unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, have been the primary weapon used by the United States to combat the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This paper examines the dynamics of violence involving drone strikes and the Taliban/Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416936
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Economies of Scale in the Tunisian Industries
Heshmati, Almas; Haouas, Ilham - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011
To date, empirical investigations of trade liberalization under the conditions of increasing returns to scale (IRS) and imperfect competition (IC) have either assumed or imposed the market and productive structures necessary for such a model. However, of the recent IRS/IC models used to simulate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024588
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More Alike than Different: The Spanish and Irish Labour Markets Before and After the Crisis
Agnese, Pablo; Salvador, Pablo F. - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011
This paper analyses the labour markets of Spain and Ireland, which have experienced a severe downturn in the recent global crisis as reflected by the largest increases in their unemployment rates among other developed economies. Spain and Ireland might seem at first to feature very different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024600
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Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Germany
Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2010
This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008678691
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An Empirical Study of the Relationships between CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth and Openness
Choi, Eunho; Heshmati, Almas; Cho, Yongsung - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2010
its causal relationships with economic growth and openness by using time series data (1971-2006) from China (an emerging … characteristics, the estimated EKC show different temporal patterns. China shows an N-shaped curve while Japan has a U-shaped curve … it represents an inverted U-shaped curve, while China shows a U-shaped curve. We also analyze the dynamic relationships …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008693845