In this paper, we re-examine the profitability of technical analysis using the Reality Check of White (2000, Econometrica) that corrects the data snooping bias. Comparing to previous studies, we study a more complete “universe” of trading techniques, including not only simple trading rules...

This paper extends Kiefer, Vogelsang, and Bunzel (2000) and Kiefer and Vogelsang (2002b) to propose a class of over-identifying restrictions (OIR) tests that are robust to heteroskedasticity and serial correlations of unknown form. These OIR tests do not require consistent estimation of the...

We extend the KVB approach of Kiefer, Vogelsang, and Bunzel (2000, Econometrica) and Kiefer and Vogelsang (2002b, Econometric Theory) to construct a class of robust tests for over-identifying restrictions in the context of GMM. The proposed test does not require consistent estimation of the...

We propose computing HAC covariance matrix estimators based on one-stepahead forecasting errors. It is shown that this estimator is consistent and has smaller bias than other HAC estimators. Moreover, the tests that rely on this estimator have more accurate sizes without sacrificing its power.

We consider testing normality in a general class of models that admits nonlinear conditional mean and conditional variance functions. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the skewness and kurtosis coefficients of the model’s standardized residuals and propose an asymptotic x2 test of...

We examine the least-squares estimator of change point for nonstationary I(d) data with 0.5 < d < 1.5. We show that this estimator fails to locate the change point consistently when a change occurs and that it would suggest a spurious change even when there is none.

In this paper we propose a general component-driven model to analyze economic data with different characteristics (or regimes) in different time periods. Motivated by empirical data characteristics, our discussion focuses on a simple model driven by a random walk component and a stationary ARMA...

In this paper we propose a new class of tests for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the moment conditions derived by Bierens (1982). In contrast with the existing consistent tests, the proposed test has a standard limiting distribution and is easy to implement. Comparing with the...

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) constitute a class of flexible nonlinear models designed to mimic biological neural systems. In this entry, we introduce ANN using familiar econometric terminology and provide an overview of ANN modeling approach and its implementation methods.

We propose a stepwise test, Step-SPA(k), for multiple inequalities testing. This test is analogous to the Step-SPA test of Hsu, Hsu, and Kuan (2010, Journal of Empirical Finance) but has asymptotic control of a generalized familywise error rate: the probability of at least k false rejections....