non-linear dynamic models may be characterized and studied, where the degree of stability is defined by the effects of exogenous shocks on the evolution of the observed stochastic system. This type of stability concept is frequently of interest in economics, e.g., in real business cycle theory....

The paper studies the forecasting of a future size distribution of plants. As a model we use an open Markov chain model for macro data. Estimation is by reparametrization instead of by inequality restrictions using single equation least squares. The estimator is studied in a small Monte Carlo...

In this paper we briefly review Bayesian and frequentist prediction inference for time series, and then advocate the use of guaranteed-content prediction intervals. These intervals are such that their content (or coverage) is guaranteed with a given high probability. They, thus, are more...

We argue that the practise of valuing the portfolio is important for the calculation of the V aR. In particular, the seller (buyer) of an asset does not face horizontal demand (supply) curves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the V aR and in an empirical...

The paper studies two approaches to modelling conditional skewness in a nonlinear model for stock returns. It is found that a normal distribution can be rejected. A log-generalized gamma distribution with one time-varying density parameter, and in particular a Pearson IV specification with three...

The daily number of occupied hotel rooms in three large Swedish cities is modelled by an integer-valued and binomial autoregression. The model includes the capacity constraint and price variables are incorporated through the parameters of the model. The model implies a duration of hotel visit...

This short paper proposes a simultaneous equations model formulation for time series of count data. Some of the basic moment properties of the model are obtained. The inclusion of real valued exogenous variables is suggested to be through the parameters of the model. Some remarks on the...

The paper suggests and studies count data models corresponding to previously studied spatial econometric models for continuous variables. A novel way of incorporating spatial weights is considered for both time and space dynamic models with or without simultaneity. The paper also contains a...

A novel method to measure bidders’ costs in descending first price sealed bid auctions is introduced. The novelty is based on two intuitively appealing economic assumptions on which bidders’ costs are given an imperfect measurements interpretation. Theory provides no guidance as to the shape...

The research estimates a competing risk model of mortgage terminations on samples of UK securitised subprime mortgages. Given the argued role of these types of loan in the recent financial crisis then it is important to better understand their performance and supposed idiosyncratic behaviour....