dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational … risk as well as expected return, we develop Bayesian methods to examine the interaction between the data and an investor … and a riskless asset. In general, however, the simple risk/return model of Merton (1980) explains very little of the yield …

conditional equity premium and risk-free rate in equilibrium. Our empirical analysis shows that the equity premium appears to be …

power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price … estimates that are of the same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive risk …

excessively pessimistic. We find that because irrational traders introduce an additional source of risk, rational investors reduce … "sentiment risk." The answer to the question posed in the title is: "There is little that rational investors can do optimally to …

and volatility on investment strategies. Using the event-risk framework of Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000), we provide … analytical solutions to the optimal portfolio problem. Event risk dramatically affects the optimal strategy. An investor facing … event risk is less willing to take leveraged or short positions. The investor acts as if some portion of his wealth may …

for reasons unrelated to risk. They also lead to a rich pattern of own- and cross-autocorrelations, sample premia that can …