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In this paper we rethink the NAIRU concept and examine whether it might have a useful role in monetary policy. We argue that it can, but success depends critically on defining NAIRU as a short-run concept and distinguishing it from a long-run concept like the natural rate of unemployment. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470871
This lecture outlines an asymmetric information theory of financial instability which describes the fundamental forces …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471510
This paper examines the international experiences with four basic types of monetary policy regimes: 1) exchange-rate targeting, 2) monetary targeting, 3) inflation targeting, and 4) monetary policy with an implicit but not an explicit nominal anchor. The basic theme that emerges from this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471842
This paper attempts to provide a perspective on the causes of inflation by exploring why sustained inflations occur and the role of monetary policy in the inflation process. The conclusion reached in this paper is that in the last ten years there has been a convergence of views in the economics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477635
Several recent studies find that ex ante real returns for short-term U.S. Treasury securities are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates. This paper examines whether these findings extend to the short-term holding return on publicly and privately issued...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477761
A heated debate has arisen over what Modigliani has dubbed the Macro Rational Expections (MRE) hypothesis. This hypothesis embodies two component hypotheses: 1) rational expectations and 2) short-run neutrality -- i.e., that anticipated changes in aggregate demand will have already been taken...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478324
This paper analyzes an important class of models in which expectations play an important role. Topics included in the analysis are tests of: (1) rationality of forecasts in either market or survey data, (2) capital market efficiency, (3) the short-run neutrality of monetary policy and, (4)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478389
efficient markets-rational expectations theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and short- term … of ascertaining the robustness of the results, many different empirical tests are carried out in this paper, and they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478425
in section II the methodology and theory used in the empirical analysis. The empirical results then follow in section III …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478501
market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478629