Very useful information, usually ignored, for construction of coincident index is the target quarterly series itself. This can be very inefficient because typically the monthly coincident series keep just high economical correlation, not always tested, with the quarterly target series. Actually,...

In this paper we perform and evaluate, in sample, some methodologies for building of coincident indicators focusing on the detection of business cycle of the Industrial activity. In respect of selection of coincident series for the Brazilian case, we will lean on recent literature (SPACOV,...

In this first working paper on leading indicators, we review the literature on the subject and, on this framework, we apply some methods of leading indicators building for industrial activity, testing in-sample, in order to monitor the industrial activity growing and its business cycle...

In this paper we implement and evaluate several forecast econometric vectorial autoregressivemodels for quarterly Industrial GDP. We have built co-integration vectorrestriction for several sets of variables (Industrial GDP, long interest rates, short interestrates, spread, inflation) in order to...