While public debt ratios in Latin America increased in 2009 amid the global financial crisis, they remain below levels reached following the Asian and Russian crises of the late 1990s. Moreover, debt composition has continued to shift towards -safer- debt (domestic debt with a higher prevalence...

While public debt ratios in Latin America increased in 2009 amid the global financial crisis, they remain below levels reached following the Asian and Russian crises of the late 1990s. Moreover, debt composition has continued to shift towards "safer" debt (domestic debt with a higher prevalence...

This paper shows, first, that non-commodity revenues are more volatile in oil- and mineral-rich countries and that quality of institutions is associated with lower volatility. We investigate the channels through which oil and mineral revenue volatility lead to non-commodity revenues volatility,...

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of China’s 2009-2010 fiscal stimulus package by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model of the world economy, showing that the effects on China’s economic activity are sizeable: absent fiscal stimulus China’s GDP would be...

Instruction Manual for Version 2. 0 of the IDB Debt Sustainability Template. The updated Template includes a new interface, more analytical functions, and greater flexibility for the researcher.

This paper examines the countercyclical policy options available to Latin American countries in the face of the current global economic crisis, concluding that most of the major countries in the region appear to possess the fiscal space (as measured by credible fiscal sustainability and debt...

This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world....

This paper asks whether bonanzas (surges) in net capital inflows increase the probability of banking crises and whether this is necessarily through a lending boom mechanism. A fixed effects regression analysis indicates that a baseline bonanza, identified as a surge of one standard deviation...

This paper analyzes capital inflow surges in emerging economies from 1980 to 2005. Estimated probit models are used, which discriminate well between surges associated with banking crises or recessions, and those surges that end without such events. The results indicate that the composition of...