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We use the information in credit-default swaps to obtain direct measures of the size of the default and nondefault components in corporate spreads. We find that the majority of the corporate spread is due to default risk. This result holds for all rating categories and is robust to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468275
Employing a large number of real and financial indicators, we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. Importantly, the predictor set includes option-adjusted credit spread indexes based on bond portfolios sorted by maturity and credit risk as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461932
The potential for portfolio diversification is driven broadly by two characteristics: the degree to which systematic risk factors are correlated with each other and the degree of dependence individual firms have to the different types of risk factors. Using a global vector autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467187
Corporate credit spreads are large, volatile, countercyclical, and significantly larger than expected losses, but existing macroeconomic models with financial frictions fail to reproduce these patterns, because they imply small and constant aggregate risk premia. Building on the idea that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461632
interest-rate sensitivities of interest rate swap positions of U.S. commercial banks to empirically address the question of … whether swap contracts have increased or decreased systematic risk in the U.S. banking system. We find that the banking system … as a whole faces little net interest-rate risk from swap portfolios …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473787
Over the last decade dealing in derivative financial instruments (basically forwards, futures, options and combinations of these), particularly in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market has become a central activity for major wholesale banks and financial institutions. Measured in terms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474119
In March 2007 the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) asked that the Joint Forum consider the extent to which its March 2005 report Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) required updating as a result of the continued growth and rapid innovation in the CRT markets. The market turmoil since the summer of 2007...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003758082
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711554
Now in prospect is a major revision of international bank capital regulations that would embody recent advances in credit risk measurement and management. Previous regulations have been simpler in structure, with a primary goal of getting capital requirements right on average, and thus have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471142
We show that increased uncertainty about the size of an emerging market's external debt has a nonlinear and potentially large adverse effect on the supply of international credit offered to them. We also show that if international creditors are first- order risk averse, attaching greater weight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471396