For the time being—and possibly for a considerable time to come—developments and prospects for the euro area are quite favorable. This upbeat outlook is underpinned by buoyant activity indicators and a supportive policy mix. High household and business confidence, rising capacity utilization...

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union data. The simulations suggest that forward-looking rules...

The German economy entered the year 2011 buoyantly. The upswing is expected to continue throughout 2011 with GDP increasing at an average rate of 2.7%. Both internal and external demand will drive the economy. In the course of the forecast horizon, however, economic activity will become less...

This paper focuses on euro area policies. The monetary policy stance remains appropriate for now. Fiscal policies are falling well short of consolidation requirements, and the area remains insufficiently prepared for the looming demographic shock. Past fiscal policy failures, notably...

The 2012 Article IV Consultation report on euro area policies highlights that investors are withholding funding from member states most in need, moving capital “north” and abroad to perceived safer assets. Executive Directors have noted that the euro area continues to face a number of...

The euro area (EA) plays a major role in the global economy. Market perceptions of events in the EA program countries illustrate the possibility of large spillovers from the area in times of stress. The prospect of large spillovers underscores the urgent need for actions to contain, and...

Considers possible adjustments in the design of Fund-supported programs, drawing on the experience of low-income countries that have successfully addressed the most apparent domestic macroeconomic imbalances

Multilateral Consultations are a new tool of multilateral surveillance for the IMF, designed to foster action-oriented debate and policy actions on a problem of systemic or regional importance. The first multilateral consultation focused on facilitating the resolution of global imbalances while...

This paper examines the monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area and the trade policies of the European Union. The paper highlights that the overall economic performance of the euro area has been disappointing: growth has been weaker and inflation higher than generally expected. To a...